US–China Relations: Falsification of the ‘Thucydides Trap’ Hypothesis
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Uniwersytet Warszawski
Publication date: 2020-06-23
Stosunki Międzynarodowe – International Relations 2016;52(4):9–31
The aim of the article is to examine the relations between the United States and China using the procedure of falsification. The subject of the procedure is the ‘Thucydides Trap’ hypothesis, tracing its roots in offensive realism and popular in academic discourse. It implies that a conflict between the United States, as the current dominant power, and China, as the rising power, is inevitable. The essence of falsification, stemming from the neo-positivist methodological tradition, is to identify such evidence in the form of competing hypotheses that will prove the tested hypothesis false. The author of the article formulates three such hypotheses: 1) China is a status quo power; 2) the US–China relations are characterised by a high degree of co-dependency and institutionalised cooperation; 3) in the sphere of implementation the US–China relations follow the logic of geoeconomy