Improving national strategic foresight with the use of forecasting tournaments and its implications for the study of international relations
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Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic
Publication date: 2023-07-26
Stosunki Międzynarodowe – International Relations 2021;57:71-92
Improving national strategic foresight can help the formation of more robust and informed policies, including foreign policy. Predicated upon the theory behind peer-prediction elicitation methods such as Reciprocal Scoring, we combined two foresight methods - Forecasting tournaments and a Delphi method - into a design in which a forecasting tournament predicted the results of a Delphi. Experts in a Delphi could take into account the arguments of participants from a prior forecasting tournament and thus make better-informed decisions. This methodological article aims to validate the feasibility of this design. It describes how we implemented it for identifying and prioritizing global megatrends as part of a strategic foresight project for the Czech government. We found this design practically applicable, while the forecasting tournament also seems to improve the ability of participants to predict a group consensus. Similar combinations of foresight methods could be used to enhance the study of international relations.
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